Hawaii Real Estate News Blog

By Eric West, REALTOR(B) RB-20968, Maui luxury real estate broker with Team West Maui at Real Broker, LLC. Updated September 24, 2026.

Maui Real Estate Market Update: September 2026

For a lot of buyers, 2026 is shaping up to be one of the better times to negotiate on Maui that I've seen in years. Through August, condo sales across the island were up 17.2% and single-family sales were up 3.0%, but the condo median dropped 8.6% to $650,000 and the single-family median dropped 5.8% to $1,225,000. West Maui condos are sitting at roughly 17 months of supply, and more than half of the West Maui condos that sold this year had a price reduction first. Whether it's a good time for you, though, really depends on the specific property, building and price range you're looking at.

I get asked some version of "should I buy now or wait?" almost every week, usually from people who've been coming to Maui for years and are finally getting serious. So I decided to stop answering from gut feel and actually go through the numbers properly.

We pulled Maui MLS closed sales going back to 2019, every active and pending listing on the island, and almost 20 years of the monthly REALTORS® Association of Maui market reports, and put them all side by side. The island-wide headlines tell you part of the story, but once you break things down by price range, area and building, Maui starts to look like several different markets that happen to share a coastline.

What the Maui Real Estate Data Shows in 2026

Buyers have a lot more inventory to work with

The August 2026 market report put single-family homes at 8.1 months of supply and condos at 12.2 months. If you were trying to buy here during the pandemic, when a decent listing could have multiple offers before the first open house, you'll notice the difference right away.

The island-wide number hides a lot, though. When we sorted single-family homes by price as of September 23, the supply looked like this:

• Under $1 million: 4.1 months
• $1 million to $2 million: 6.3 months
• $2 million to $3 million: 9.2 months
• $3 million to $5 million: 20.1 months
• $5 million and up: 41.4 months

So a buyer shopping for a $5 million plus home on Maui has about ten times as much inventory to choose from as someone looking under $1 million. They're on the same island, but they're dealing with completely different conditions.

Condos have double-digit supply in every price range

We ran the same calculation on Maui condos, comparing current inventory with the last 12 months of sales:

• Under $1 million: 11.3 months
• $1 million to $2 million: 17.5 months
• $2 million to $3 million: 14.7 months
• $3 million to $5 million: 19.4 months
• $5 million and up: 18.0 months

The top tier is a small sample, so I wouldn't lean on that one too hard. Still, every condo price range we looked at came in above 10 months. That doesn't mean every condo on the market is a deal, but it does mean most buyers have options, and options usually translate into room to negotiate.

West Maui condo sales are up, but sellers are getting less

I didn't expect this one. From January through August, West Maui condo sales went from 156 in 2025 to 193 in 2026, an increase of 23.7%. If that were the only number you saw, you'd assume sellers were back in control.

The details point the other way. Median cumulative days on market went from 108 to 147. The median sold price compared with the final list price slipped from 95.6% to 94.7%, and compared with the original list price it dropped from 91.7% to 88.7%. The share of sales that had a price reduction went from 44.2% to 52.3%.

In other words, more West Maui condos are closing, but they're taking longer to sell and settling further below the price they first came on at.

West Maui has about 17 months of condo supply

As of September 23, there were 389 active condo listings in West Maui, 28 pending, and 272 closed sales over the previous 12 months. At that pace it would take about 17.2 months to sell through what's on the market today.

If you're looking at condos in Kaanapali, Kapalua, Napili, Kahana or Lahaina, that's worth knowing, but I'd still go a level deeper. Valley Isle Resort and Honua Kai behave very differently, and neither one looks much like Kapalua Bay Villas or Maui Kaanapali Villas. Each building has its own inventory, HOA fees, rental rules, insurance situation, views and sales history, and those details matter more than any West Maui average.

Where on Maui makes a big difference

Single-family supply right now is about 13.8 months in West Maui, 8.1 months in South Maui and 6.7 months across the rest of the island. The gaps get bigger when you go neighborhood by neighborhood. If you're pricing a $2-$3.5 million home in Kaanapali Hillside, the useful comparison is the other homes a buyer could choose instead of it, not an island-wide median that mixes in Wailuku, Haiku, Kihei and Upcountry.

Part of the condo median drop is about what's selling

The mix of condos changing hands has shifted a lot. Among standard condo sales, the share under $1 million went from 55.3% in 2024 to 67.4% in 2025 and 75.4% so far in 2026. Sales over $3 million went the other direction, from 10.8% to 6.7% to 4.4%.

That doesn't account for the whole decline, but it's a big part of why the median looks the way it does. It's also why you shouldn't assume every Maui condo has dropped 8.6% in value.

Negotiating numbers have softened across the island

This isn't only happening in West Maui. Island-wide, median condo days on market went from 113 to 127, sold to final list price went from 96.1% to 95.3%, and the share of sales with a price reduction went from 48.2% to 49.3%, all while condo sales volume rose 17.2%. More condos are selling, but sellers aren't getting better terms for it, which is useful for buyers to know going in.

Is Maui a Buyer's Market Right Now?

In general yes. But I don't think that question can be answered for the whole island and every micro segment. Buyers overall have a lot more leverage in most price ranges and property types than they did a few years ago, and in others inventory is still pretty tight.

Nobody buys "the Maui market" anyway. You buy one specific property from one specific seller, and what matters is how that property compares with everything else you could buy for similar money. That's the question I'd rather help people answer.

Using AI and Maui MLS Data to Look at One Property

AI tools can be really useful here if you give them real data and ask a specific question. Asking ChatGPT whether Maui is a good investment won't get you much. Giving it the actual sales and inventory data for a building and asking it to break down a specific unit is a different story.

Say you're getting ready to write an offer on a two-bedroom at Valley Isle Resort in Kahana. Before you do, you'd want to know:

• How many Valley Isle units have sold since 2019, and how many of those were two-bedrooms
• What they were originally listed at, what they were finally listed at, and what they sold for
• Price per square foot
• How long they actually took to sell, and whether any were pulled and relisted
• How much floor level, specific stack and view affected price
• How many units are for sale or pending right now
• How quickly the building usually absorbs its inventory
• Whether sellers there are typically getting 98% of asking, 95%, or closer to 90%
• How often sellers have had to cut their price
• How Valley Isle compares with other Kahana condos you could buy instead

A house works the same way. For a home in Kaanapali Hillside, you'd look at past Hillside sales with similar bedrooms, bathrooms and square footage, plus lot size, views, whether it's been renovated, list and sale prices, price per square foot, days on market, relistings, price cuts, what's competing now, and how things look over three, five and seven years.

I'm not interested in an algorithm telling you a home is worth exactly $2,437,825, because nobody can price a property that precisely. What the data can do is put all the relevant evidence in front of you before you decide what to offer.

The Pre-Offer Research Prompt

We've put together a Maui Market Insight Prompt Library for exactly this. This is the one I'd start with. Fill in the brackets and paste it into your AI tool along with the data files that you can pull yourself at my new resource MauiRealEstateData.com

"I am considering buying [PROPERTY ADDRESS] for approximately [$PRICE].

Analyze this property using Maui closed-sale data from 2019 through 2026 year-to-date, current active listings, current pending listings and the most recent Maui market reports.

Identify the strongest comparable closed sales and rank them by similarity rather than simply by closing date.

For each relevant comparable property show: original asking price, final asking price, closed price, sold price per square foot, Cumulative Days on Market, square footage, bedrooms and bathrooms, view and waterfront characteristics, Fee Simple or Leasehold tenure, relevant rental status, and important differences from the subject property.

Then analyze: current competing inventory, pending activity, historical sales velocity, current estimated months of supply, recent price reductions, sold-to-final-list-price ratios, sold-to-original-list-price ratios, and three-, five- and seven-year historical context where the sample is large enough.

Explain what the evidence suggests about buyer negotiating leverage. Show the numerical basis for every important conclusion. Separate facts from interpretation. Do not infer seller motivation. Flag small sample sizes, missing information and stale current-market data.

Finish with the most important questions that should still be answered before an offer is written."

The Offer Strategy Prompt

Once you've got the comps and a feel for the current market, this one helps you think through the offer itself.

"For [PROPERTY ADDRESS] listed at [ASKING PRICE], build an evidence-based offer strategy using comparable sales and current and historical market conditions.

Show: typical sold-to-final-list ratios for this segment, typical sold-to-original-list ratios, Cumulative Days on Market of comparable properties, evidence of recent price reductions, inventory and months of supply, pending activity, and current active competition.

Then show three possible offer scenarios: a lower opening position, a middle position, and a stronger position. For each, explain the numerical basis, tradeoffs, and what additional information would change the strategy.

Do not predict whether the seller will accept any particular offer."

People ask me all the time what percentage under asking they should offer, and there really isn't a standard number. If a home is priced well and there's nothing else like it, coming in 10% low could cost you the house. If it's been on the market for 250 days with four similar properties competing for the same buyers, you're in a very different position. The list price alone won't tell you which situation you're in, but the surrounding data usually will.

Two More Prompts I Use a Lot

Finding the real comps

"Show me every recent sale in [BUILDING / NEIGHBORHOOD] that is genuinely comparable to [PROPERTY ADDRESS]. Rank them by similarity and explain the important differences."

The most recent sale isn't always the best comparison. A nearly identical unit in the same building that sold six months ago will often tell you more than something across the neighborhood that closed last week.

Checking your leverage

"How much negotiating leverage would I have on [PROPERTY ADDRESS] based on its Days on Market, Cumulative Days on Market, comparable sales, active competition, pending activity, price reductions and current inventory?"

We tell the AI not to guess at seller motivation, on purpose. A price reduction doesn't tell you why the seller reduced, and 200 days on market doesn't necessarily mean they're desperate. We can see what happened, but we shouldn't pretend to know the reasons behind it.

Where the Data Stops Being Useful

All of this can tell you what similar properties sold for, how long they took, how far sellers came down, what's competing today and how the current market compares with past years.

It can't tell you how a place actually feels. A spreadsheet has no idea whether the lanai catches the afternoon trade winds, whether you can hear Honoapiilani Highway from the bedroom, or whether the "ocean view" in the listing is really a slice of water between two buildings while the unit two floors up looks straight out to Molokai. It won't catch deferred maintenance, judge the quality of a remodel, or pick up on HOA politics and reserve problems. And it definitely can't tell you whether this is the place your family has been hoping to find.

That's where knowing the buildings and neighborhoods firsthand makes the difference, and it's why I see the data as a tool for better judgment rather than a replacement for it.

Why We Built MauiRealEstateData.com

Over the last several weeks, we've been building out what I hope will become one of the most useful independent Maui real estate research sites available. Right now it includes:

• Maui MLS closed sales from 2019 through 2026 year to date
• Current active and pending listings YTD 2026
• Historical monthly Maui market reports since 1998
• Cleaned transaction datasets
• Price, market time, inventory and absorption analysis
• Neighborhood and condo research tools
• Buyer due diligence resources
• Maui property tax and 1031 exchange information
• Answers to common buyer questions
• A growing library of AI research prompts
• All of the pertinent Real Estate Contract and Forms like the Purchase Contract, Buyers Agency Agreement and many more.

You can find all of it at MauiRealEstateData.com. There are plenty of places to scroll through Maui homes for sale already. I wanted to build something that helps people understand the market behind those listings.

A Question Every Maui Oceanfront Buyer Should Ask

I recently spoke with Mansion Global after representing the buyer on the $6.65 million sale of an oceanfront home at 1250 Uluniu Road in Kihei. One of the things we talked about was shoreline exposure and long-term coastal risk, which oceanfront buyers here are paying a lot more attention to. That property had an unusually deep natural buffer between the house and the water, and it was a real factor in the decision.

Buyers used to mostly ask how close a home was to the ocean. More and more, they're also asking how close the ocean might eventually get to the home.

Read the Mansion Global article

Deals like that one are a good reminder that sales data only gets you part of the way. Knowing why one oceanfront home deserves to be bought than the one next to it takes local experience.

A Word of Caution About AI

One thing we learned quickly while building this is that AI is very good at giving answers that sound confident, whether or not they're right. So every prompt in our library tells the model to show its sources, sample sizes, filters and math, flag missing or outdated data, keep Fee Simple and Leasehold separate, leave timeshares and fractional ownership out of normal condo numbers, use cumulative days on market when a property has been relisted, compare year to date against year to date, keep facts separate from interpretation, never make up a number, and never guess why a seller did something. The goal is to help you ask better questions of real Maui data, not to make AI sound smarter than it is.

Should You Buy or Sell on Maui Now?

There isn't one answer that fits everyone, but buyers today have far more information and, in a lot of segments, far more choice than they did a few years ago. Condo sales are up, single-family sales are up slightly, medians are lower, condo supply is high (especially in West Maui), homes are taking longer to sell in several price ranges, and more sellers are reducing their prices and accepting WAY less than they originally asked.

None of that tells you whether a particular property is a good buy. To figure that out, you have to narrow the data down to your property type, your price range, your part of the island and your building or neighborhood, and then compare that one property with most recent comparabl sales and the alternative homes or units for sale today.

Sellers are dealing with the flip side of the same thing. Buyers can see how long your home/unit has been listed, every price change, and every competing property, so pricing against today's competition rather than 2022 is what actually gets a Maui home sold.

If you're thinking about buying or selling on Maui, send me the address, MLS number, building or neighborhood you're looking at, even if you're a year or more out. I'm happy to go through the numbers with you, and I'd love to be your guy.

And if you'd rather dig in on your own first, head over to MauiRealEstateData.com, watch the video, download the raw data yourself, import into your own favorite AI model and try the prompts yourself.

Common Questions About the Maui Real Estate Market

Are Maui real estate prices dropping?

Median prices are down. Through August 2026, the Maui single-family median fell 5.8% to $1,225,000 and the condo median fell 8.6% to $650,000. Some of the condo decline comes from more lower-priced units selling, so individual properties vary quite a bit.

Is the Maui real estate market going to crash?

The numbers don't point to a crash. Sales are up compared with last year. What we're seeing is buyers gaining negotiating room in segments with a lot of supply, like West Maui condos and homes over $3 million, while other segments stay fairly tight.

Is it a good time to buy a condo on Maui?

For many buyers it is. Every Maui condo price range had more than 10 months of supply in September 2026, and more than half of West Maui condo sales involved a price reduction. You still need to look closely at HOA fees, insurance, reserves, special assessments and rental rules for each building.

Is it a good time to sell a home on Maui?

Homes that are priced well are still selling. Homes priced above the competition tend to sit and often end up selling well below their original asking price, so pricing against what buyers can choose from today matters more than ever.

How do I find a Maui real estate agent who knows West Maui?

Look for someone who can show you data at the building and neighborhood level, not just island-wide averages. Eric West has worked in the Maui market since 2006 and specializes in West Maui luxury homes and condos in Kaanapali, Kapalua, Lahaina, Napili, Kahana and Launiupoko.

About Eric West

Eric West is a Maui luxury real estate broker (RB-20968) with Team West Maui at Real Broker, LLC, and has been active in the Maui real estate market since 2006. He specializes in West Maui luxury homes and condominiums in Kaanapali, Kapalua, Lahaina, Napili, Kahana and Launiupoko, and represents buyers and sellers across Maui. Eric has been named one of Fidelity National Title's Maui Top 3% agents every year from 2022 through 2026. His team has closed $33 million on Maui in 2026, including three homes over $5 million, and his work has been featured in Mansion Global. He runs the HawaiiRealEstate.ORG YouTube channel and the Maui Real Estate Research Library at MauiRealEstateData.com, and works alongside his wife, Lisa West, REALTOR(S) RS-78351.

Call or text: 808-298-2030
Email: Hawaiisbest1@gmail.com

Eric West, REALTOR(B) RB-20968 | Lisa West, REALTOR(S) RS-78351 | Team West Maui | Real Broker, LLC. Market data based on information from the REALTORS® Association of Maui MLS. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.